CAPITAL STREET FX | DAILY COMMODITY ANALYSIS
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Commodities are trading with mixed bias today as market participants are weighing persistent geopolitical risks, divided central bank policy signals, and thin Lunar New Year liquidity conditions across Asian markets. Gold is holding above $5,000 on safe-haven demand while the Fed’s divided stance caps gains. Silver is attempting to stabilise near key EMA levels. WTI Crude is advancing as US-Iran tensions are fuelling supply risk premium, while Natural Gas is consolidating near critical $3.00 support amid a lack of directional catalysts.
⚡ KEY MACRO DRIVERS FOR COMMODITIES TODAY
• US-Iran Geopolitical Tensions — Ongoing military activity risk is supporting oil and safe-haven metals
• Hawkish FOMC Minutes — Strengthening USD is capping commodity upside (non-yielding assets under pressure)
• Thin Lunar New Year Liquidity — Reduced Chinese participation is dampening trading volumes across commodity markets
• Friday US PCE Inflation Data — Key upcoming data release that will clarify USD trajectory and commodity direction
• Initial Jobless Claims (19:00 GMT) — Forecast 223K, Prior 227K
GOLD (XAU/USD) — HOLDING ABOVE $5,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining modest intraday gains above the psychologically significant $5,000 level during the European session, though upside momentum is remaining limited as competing macro forces pull in opposite directions. Safe-haven demand is providing a floor following the breakdown in US-brokered Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva, where disagreements over eastern Ukrainian territories are continuing to simmer. However, the FOMC minutes are revealing a deeply divided committee: some officials are favouring rate cuts if inflation cools further, while others are warning that premature easing risks undermining the 2% inflation target — a mixed message for gold. Stronger-than-expected US industrial production and surging manufacturing output are keeping the USD supported, which is capping gold’s advance. Market focus is now shifting toward Friday’s US PCE Price Index, which is expected to provide the clearest signal yet on the Fed’s near-term policy path.
TRADER INSIGHT: Gold is currently benefiting from a dual support structure — geopolitical safe-haven flows and longer-term dollar weakness expectations. However, the USD’s near-term strength post-FOMC is creating a ceiling. Experienced traders are watching the $5,000 level as the critical bull/bear pivot — a weekly close above it would strengthen the longer-term bullish thesis substantially.
Technical Indicators
| TYPE | PERIOD | VALUE | SIGNAL |
| EMA | 10 | 4,977.18 | Bullish |
| EMA | 20 | 4,928.18 | Bullish |
| EMA | 50 | 4,705.40 | Bullish |
| SMA | 10 | 4,974.34 | Bullish |
| SMA | 20 | 5,006.01 | Bullish |
| SMA | 50 | 4,664.09 | Bullish |
RSI (14): 54.78 — Buy Zone (Bullish) | Stochastic: 48.72 — Neutral Zone
Key Price Levels
| RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 | SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 |
| $5,426.94 | $5,731.18 | $4,442.03 | $4,137.79 |
OVERALL SENTIMENT: BULLISH | DIRECTION: BUY
Trade Suggestion
| ENTRY PRICE $4,988.00 (Limit Buy) | TAKE PROFIT $5,122.00 | STOP LOSS $4,932.00 |
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.4:1 | Strategy: Buy dips toward $5,000 with tight SL below $4,932
SILVER (XAG/USD) — BASE-BUILDING NEAR 50-DAY EMA
Silver (XAG/USD) is advancing for a second consecutive session and is currently trading near $79.20 per troy ounce. The daily RSI is registering around 47 and is edging higher — signalling that bearish momentum is easing and conditions are beginning to stabilise. Price action is remaining compressed just below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 9-day EMA, trapping Silver within these near-term technical boundaries. The 9-day EMA is beginning to slope higher as the 50-day EMA flattens, hinting at a potential base-building phase. A clean break below the 9-day EMA near $78.95 would reignite downside risk, exposing the February 6 low at $64.08 and subsequently the descending wedge boundary near $59.10. On the upside, a daily close above the 50-day EMA near $79.26 would strengthen bullish momentum and could unlock the path toward $121.66 — the all-time high set on January 29.
Technical Indicators
| TYPE | PERIOD | VALUE | SIGNAL |
| EMA | 10 | 82.71 | Bearish |
| EMA | 20 | 78.73 | Bearish |
| EMA | 50 | 68.93 | Bullish |
| SMA | 10 | 88.27 | Bearish |
| SMA | 20 | 80.21 | Bearish |
| SMA | 50 | 65.32 | Bullish |
RSI (14): 47.34 — Neutral Zone | Stochastic: 44.75 — Neutral Zone
Key Price Levels
| RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 | SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 |
| $85.50 | $95.16 | $72.16 | $64.08 |
OVERALL SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL | DIRECTION: BUY
Trade Suggestion
| ENTRY PRICE $77.49 (Limit Buy) | TAKE PROFIT $86.37 | STOP LOSS $73.85 |
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.5:1 | Entry on pullback; confirmation needed above $79.26 (50-day EMA)
WTI CRUDE OIL — ADVANCING ON US-IRAN SUPPLY RISK
WTI Crude Oil is edging higher and trading near $65.70 per barrel as geopolitical risk premium is returning to the market. Escalating US-Iran tensions are raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil-producing infrastructure and critical shipping lanes — particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil flows transit daily. Analysts are warning that any military escalation or direct conflict could sharply amplify upward pressure on crude prices. All EMA and SMA crossovers are registering as bullish, and the RSI at 61.89 is confirming strong buying momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. The Stochastic at 66.13 is also supporting the bullish bias. The next resistance is at $66.74 (R1), followed by $69.27 (R2), while support is sitting at $58.56 (S1) and $56.03 (S2).
TRADER INSIGHT: WTI is exhibiting a classic ‘geopolitical risk premium’ build — a pattern where prices rally ahead of any confirmed supply disruption. Experienced traders are noting that these moves can reverse sharply once geopolitical fears subside. Position sizing accordingly and consider trailing stops to protect profits if momentum continues toward R2 at $69.27.
Technical Indicators
| TYPE | PERIOD | VALUE | SIGNAL |
| EMA | 10 | 64.09 | Bullish |
| EMA | 20 | 63.29 | Bullish |
| EMA | 50 | 61.65 | Bullish |
| SMA | 10 | 64.00 | Bullish |
| SMA | 20 | 63.66 | Bullish |
| SMA | 50 | 60.40 | Bullish |
RSI (14): 61.89 — Buy Zone (Bullish) | Stochastic: 66.13 — Buy Zone
Key Price Levels
| RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 | SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 |
| $66.74 | $69.27 | $58.56 | $56.03 |
OVERALL SENTIMENT: BULLISH | DIRECTION: BUY
Trade Suggestion
| ENTRY PRICE $65.40 (Limit Buy) | TAKE PROFIT $66.71 | STOP LOSS $64.81 |
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.2:1 | Tight trade — momentum-based; consider Brent Crude as corroborating signal
NATURAL GAS — RANGE-BOUND NEAR CRITICAL $3.00 SUPPORT
Natural Gas futures are hovering near $3.02 on the 4-hour chart, sitting precariously above the psychologically important $3.00 support zone. Price action is remaining range-bound and is consolidating beneath the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $3.33, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $2.67 representing the primary downside target should $3.00 give way. Recent candlestick patterns are reflecting a lack of strong directional commitment — small bodies and muted momentum are suggesting a post-rally consolidation after the sharp advance that pushed prices to $4.38. The 50-period EMA near $3.20 is acting as dynamic resistance, capping recovery attempts, while the 200-period EMA near $2.50 is providing broader structural support. A decisive break below $3.00 would expose $2.67, while a sustained move above $3.33 would revive bullish momentum and potentially bring the $3.91 area back into sight.
Technical Indicators
| TYPE | PERIOD | VALUE | SIGNAL |
| EMA | 10 | 3.6511 | Bearish |
| EMA | 20 | 3.9194 | Bearish |
| EMA | 50 | 4.0323 | Bearish |
| SMA | 10 | 3.6394 | Bearish |
| SMA | 20 | 4.3279 | Bearish |
| SMA | 50 | 4.0392 | Bearish |
RSI (14): 35.34 — Sell Zone (Bearish) | Stochastic: 2.57 — Extreme Sell Zone (Approaching Oversold)
Key Price Levels
| RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 | SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 |
| $6.1462 | $6.8424 | $3.8924 | $3.1962 |
OVERALL SENTIMENT: BEARISH | DIRECTION: SELL
Trade Suggestion
| ENTRY PRICE $3.08 (Limit Sell) | TAKE PROFIT $2.91 | STOP LOSS $3.18 |
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1.7:1 | Stochastic near 0 — watch for potential temporary bounce before downside continues
COMMODITY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Gold +0.82% → $5,016.05 | Silver +2.49% → $79.13 | Palladium +0.49% → $1,695.05 | Platinum -0.98% → $2,043.34 | Brent Crude +1.61% → $71.48 | WTI Crude +1.85% → $66.26
RISK DISCLAIMER: This report is produced by Capital Street FX for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading commodities and CFDs carries significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Visit capitalstreetfx.com for full risk disclosures.
