Commodity Market Analysis – March 17, 2026 | Gold, Oil, Silver & Copper
The Commodity Wire
The Macro Picture: What’s Driving Every Price Today
March 17, 2026 opens at a rare inflection point. Commodity markets are being pulled simultaneously by the largest oil supply shock in modern history, an imminent Federal Reserve policy decision, and a breathtaking precious-metals correction from all-time highs — all in a single session.
The US–Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, has caused the largest supply disruption in IEA history. Crude production in the Middle East has been curtailed by at least 8–10 mb/d. The Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries ~20% of global oil supply — remains functionally impaired despite one tanker transiting on March 16. Every commodity session is binary until diplomatic resolution emerges.
After the initial geopolitical shock that drove Brent crude to a session high near $120/bbl on March 9, prices have partially stabilised with Brent hovering above $100/bbl. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US is allowing Iranian tankers through the Strait to supply the rest of the world — a significant nuance. However, over 100 commercial vessels per day normally transit this waterway; a single tanker passage does not constitute normalisation.
Gold, paradoxically, has struggled as a safe-haven play despite the active conflict. The culprit: surging oil prices are stoking inflation fears, which is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and strengthening the US Dollar — both headwinds for non-yielding gold. Silver has experienced the sharpest correction, having fallen from its all-time high near $121.67 in January 2026 to the current $81 region — a near-34% drawdown that technical analysts describe as a “triangle rejection.”
Copper, meanwhile, is benefiting from a structural supply deficit projected to reach 1 million tonnes in 2026 as AI infrastructure and energy-transition demand accelerates, making it the cleanest structural bull market of the four commodities covered today.
“Unless something changes very soon, we are in a potentially game-changing and unprecedented energy crisis. The key problem is a lack of tangible goals in this war — it makes it hard for oil traders to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
— Adi Imsirovic, Energy Security Expert, University of OxfordHigh-Impact Events: Next 24 Hours
The following data releases and central bank events carry the highest probability of moving commodity prices in the next 24 hours. The FOMC meeting beginning today is the dominant macro event of the week.
| Time (ET) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Commodity Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Day | USA | FOMC Meeting — Day 1 of 2 | — | Hold (3.50–3.75%) | HIGH | USD, Gold, Oil bearish/bullish depending on tone |
| 08:30 ET | USA | Building Permits (Feb) | ~1.47M | 1.47M | MED | Copper (construction demand proxy) |
| 08:30 ET | USA | Housing Starts (Feb) | ~1.38M | 1.37M | MED | Copper, Lumber |
| 10:30 ET | USA | EIA Crude Inventory (Weekly) | −2.5Mb est. | −1.7Mb | HIGH | WTI Crude, Brent (direct price mover) |
| Tomorrow 14:00 ET | USA | FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot + SEP | Hold (95.6% prob.) | 3.50–3.75% | HIGH | Gold, Silver, USD — highly sensitive to dot plot language |
| Tomorrow 14:30 ET | USA | Fed Chair Powell Press Conference | Hawkish lean expected | — | HIGH | All commodities — Powell tone on oil-driven inflation is key |
| Tomorrow 08:30 ET | USA | PPI (Feb) — Final | +0.3% MoM | +0.4% MoM | HIGH | Gold (inflation hedge play); USD inverse |
| This Week | Europe | ECB Members Speaking (Lagarde) | Cautious tone on oil inflation | — | MED | EUR/USD; indirect Gold/Silver |
| Mar 19 | Japan | Bank of Japan Policy Decision | Hold expected; watch for rate commentary | 0.5% (Feb hike) | HIGH | JPY; Gold in JPY terms; Asian commodity demand |
| Mar 18 | Australia | RBA Minutes (March Meeting) | Dovish signals expected | 25bp cut in Feb | MED | AUD-sensitive metals; Iron Ore, Copper |
| Mar 17–19 | China | PBOC Loan Prime Rate Decision | Hold at 3.10% | 3.10% | HIGH | Copper, Iron Ore, Oil demand outlook |
| This Week | UK | UK CPI (Feb YoY) | ~3.1% | 3.0% | HIGH | GBP; energy cost pass-through pressure |
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 95.6% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. But this meeting’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) will be the real event. If the dot plot signals fewer cuts in 2026 due to oil-driven inflation, the USD will rally, putting downside pressure on Gold and Silver. Conversely, if Powell signals concern about growth impact, both metals could spike sharply.
Gold (XAU/USD) — Full Technical Analysis
Gold is navigating a classic tug-of-war: the macro environment that has defined its historic 65%-plus bull run since early 2025 is now being challenged by an inflation dynamic it helped create — surging oil prices are keeping real yields elevated and the dollar bid, capping the yellow metal below key resistance.
| ATH (Jan 29, 2026) | $5,595.42 |
| Resistance 1 | $5,075–$5,080 |
| Resistance 2 | $5,120–$5,130 |
| Resistance 3 (Bull trigger) | $5,184 |
| Current Price | $5,021.92 |
| Support 1 (Key Zone) | $4,995–$5,010 |
| Support 2 (Demand) | $4,967 (liquidity) |
| Support 3 (200-EMA 4H) | ~$5,039 |
| Pivot Zone | $5,000 (psychological) |
| Trend (Daily) | Corrective / Descending Channel |
| Trend (Weekly) | Bullish (higher lows intact) |
| RSI (4H) | ~44 — Below 50 midline, neutral-bearish |
| MACD (4H) | Below signal; negative but contracting |
| SMA 50 (Daily) | ~$4,990 — Price above (bullish) |
| SMA 200 (Daily) | ~$4,650 — Strong long-term bull |
| 200-EMA (4H) | ~$5,039 — Acting as support |
| Overall Tech Signal | SELL (Investing.com composite) |
| Volatility (ATR) | High — Geopolitical binary risk |
Key logic: Gold is trading inside a descending channel on 4H, correcting from the $5,598 swing high. The 200-EMA (4H) near $5,039 and psychological $5,000 zone are the primary demand areas. Do NOT enter long ahead of FOMC — wait for Post-Powell clarity. A hawkish Powell (citing oil-driven inflation) should press gold below $4,967 toward $4,850. A dovish surprise (growth concern over inflation) could ignite a sharp relief rally toward $5,130+.
WTI Crude Oil — Full Technical Analysis
WTI crude is the epicentre of the 2026 commodity shock. Trading near $96/bbl — up approximately 40% since before the war — the market is in “binary geopolitical mode.” Technical analysis is secondary to a single question: will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
| Spike High (Mar 9) | $119.48 |
| Resistance 1 | $100–$102 (psychological + Brent parity) |
| Resistance 2 (Fib 61.8%) | $99.09 |
| Resistance 3 (Fib 50%) | $97.92 |
| Current Price | $96.07 |
| Support 1 (Fib 38.2%) | $96.75 |
| Support 2 | $93–$93.50 (prev close) |
| Gap Fill (pre-war range) | $70–$73 (if Hormuz reopens) |
| Pre-War Base | ~$65 (structural floor) |
| Trend (Daily) | Volatile; near Geopolitical Mean Reversion |
| 100 SMA vs 200 SMA | 100 SMA crossed above 200 SMA (bullish) |
| RSI (Daily) | ~58 — Pulled back from extreme overbought |
| OVX (Oil VIX) | ELEVATED (was 121 on Mar 13) — Extreme |
| IEA Action | 400Mb emergency release (record — still insufficient) |
| OPEC+ Stance | Gulf producers cutting output (no storage for trapped barrels) |
| EIA Forecast (STEO) | Brent avg >$95 next 2M; then falls below $80 in Q3 |
| Ascending Trend Line | BROKEN below on 4H (short-term bearish signal) |
| Overall Tech Signal | NEUTRAL-BEARISH (short-term); BULLISH (structural conflict) |
Critical trader warnings: (1) Reduce position size by at least 50% vs normal. A single headline — a ceasefire, a Hormuz reopening, a new Iranian strike — can move WTI ±$10–$15 in seconds. (2) Use limit orders exclusively; market orders carry catastrophic slippage risk. (3) Do NOT hold open oil positions into tonight’s US session if you cannot monitor news flow continuously. (4) Goldman Sachs has $110/bbl target if Hormuz remains closed; a Hormuz reopening could collapse prices toward the $70–$73 gap-fill zone within days.
Silver (XAG/USD) — Full Technical Analysis
Silver has had the most dramatic 2026 story of any commodity covered here. From its $121.67 all-time high on January 26, 2026 to the current $81 region — a 33% correction — the white metal is caught between a structural bull thesis (industrial demand, supply deficits) and a very real technical breakdown.
| ATH (Jan 26, 2026) | $121.67 |
| Triangle Rejection Zone | $90–$92 (institutional selling) |
| Resistance 1 | $88.50–$90 |
| Resistance 2 | $83.00–$85 (50-day SMA area) |
| Current Price | $81.01 |
| Support 1 (Major) | $80–$81 (psychological) |
| Support 2 (Critical) | $76–$78 (demand zone) |
| Support 3 (Structural) | $70–$72 (pre-2026 channel) |
| Pivot Point | $85.00 |
| Trend (Daily) | Bearish — Descending structure post-ATH |
| RSI (4H) | 44.5 — Neutral, approaching oversold zone |
| ATR | 3.57 — Moderate-high volatility |
| ADX | 15 — No strong directional trend (range phase) |
| 50-Day SMA | ~$85.35 — Price below (bearish) |
| 200-Day EMA | ~$85.82 — Long-term bull structure |
| Parabolic SAR | Indicating uptrend (short-term) |
| Overall Tech Signal | STRONG SELL (Investing.com composite) |
| Market Sentiment | Bearish (Managed Money derisking) |
Context: Silver’s “triangle rejection” from $90–$92 was confirmed institutionally. The dominant setup is selling rallies until price either (a) holds above $88.50 convincingly, or (b) drops into the $76–$78 structural demand zone for a high-reward long. Long-term fundamental demand (AI, solar, EVs, military technology) is intact — but do not fight the current corrective structure. A break below $80 opens $76–$78; a break below $74 opens $70–$72.
Copper (HG1) — Full Technical Analysis
Copper stands apart from the rest. While gold and silver are battling macro headwinds and oil is held hostage to geopolitics, copper has a structural demand story — driven by AI infrastructure, electrification and energy transition — that is independent of the Iran crisis and arguably the cleanest medium-term commodity trade of 2026.
| Bull Case Target (Citi) | $14,000/t (~$6.35/lb) |
| Base Case Target (Citi) | $12,000/t (~$5.44/lb) |
| Resistance 1 | $6.15–$6.20/lb |
| Resistance 2 | $6.35/lb (YTD high zone) |
| Current Price | $6.06/lb |
| Support 1 | $5.95–$6.00/lb |
| Support 2 | $5.80–$5.85/lb |
| Support 3 (Strong Floor) | $5.60–$5.70/lb |
| Structural Demand Driver | AI/Data Centers, EV, Renewables |
| Trend (Daily) | Bullish — Higher lows intact |
| Trend (Weekly) | Strong Bullish — Multi-month uptrend |
| RSI (Daily) | ~58 — Constructive, not overbought |
| MACD (Daily) | Positive, above signal line |
| Moving Averages | Price above all major MAs (bullish) |
| Supply Fundamentals | 1M tonne deficit projected in 2026 |
| China Demand | Renewables + AI infrastructure driving |
| Middle East Risk | Moderate exposure (supply chain disruptions) |
| Overall Tech Signal | STRONG BUY (Investing.com composite) |
Why copper is the cleanest play today: Unlike gold and silver, copper’s bullish thesis is not dependent on FOMC or geopolitical resolution — AI data centre construction, EV battery demand, and renewable energy grid buildout all require copper, independent of the Iran war. The structural supply deficit (1M tonne projected for 2026) provides a fundamental floor. Dips to the $5.95–$6.02 zone should be bought with a medium-term horizon. Monitor China’s PBOC LPR decision (this week) and any signs of Chinese property sector stimulus for additional catalysts.
Trader FAQs — March 17, 2026
The Intelligence Summary — What Matters Most Today
March 17, 2026 is not a normal trading day. It is the confluence of the largest geopolitical oil shock in modern history, the opening session of the most consequential FOMC meeting of the year, and a precious metals market at technical crossroads after a historic bull run.
For experienced active traders, the highest-quality setups today are not necessarily the most intuitive ones. Gold, despite the ongoing war, is vulnerable to downside pressure until the FOMC removes uncertainty. Silver’s structural bull story is temporarily overridden by a damaging technical correction — the higher-probability setup is selling bounces toward $83–$85, not chasing the long side. WTI crude remains the most dangerous market to trade with standard position sizing given the binary nature of Hormuz developments.
Copper stands out as the commodity with the most balanced risk/reward profile for today’s session: structural demand drivers are intact, technical structure remains bullish, and price action is not distorted by the same geopolitical noise affecting energy and precious metals. For traders seeking an active position in this volatile environment, a scale-in copper long near $5.95–$6.02 with a clearly defined stop below $5.80 offers the cleanest setup.
Ultimately, the next 24–48 hours will be defined by two events: the first signs of lasting Hormuz resolution (or escalation) and Powell’s dot plot language tomorrow. Position lightly, use limit orders, keep stops tight, and manage news flow as diligently as you manage your charts. In a market where $10 oil moves can happen in seconds, the trader who survives to trade tomorrow has already won.
“The market is not wrong. It is simply pricing in every possible outcome simultaneously — and that is precisely why active, disciplined traders have an edge right now.”
— Capital Street FX Market Intelligence DeskRisk Disclosure: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Prices referenced in this report are sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com, TradingView, IEA, EIA and other public sources as of the publication date and may change rapidly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions. This report does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
