Tesla’s Q1 print was a genuine top-line beat — $0.41 EPS beat the $0.37 street estimate and $22.39B revenue topped the $22.19B bar. Initial reaction: +4% in after-hours. Then Elon Musk opened his mouth on the call. The central shock was a warning that 2026 capex will rise “substantially” as Tesla converts from an EV manufacturer into an AI-and-robotics infrastructure company. Musk’s projection that Optimus humanoid robots will become the “biggest product ever” is compelling on a multi-year horizon — but it comes at an immediate cash flow cost. Negative free cash flow guidance for 2026 is not what a market trading at record P/E multiples wanted to hear. The stock gave back its entire gain and settled −2% AH.

IBM beat EPS expectations and reported a healthy AI services book, but declined to raise its full-year 2026 guidance — and that silence was the only thing the market heard. In an earnings season where every AI-adjacent company is expected to upgrade its outlook as data center demand accelerates, IBM’s conservative stance was treated as a warning sign. The −6.8% AH move also has sector-wide read-through: if IBM, with a $12.5B AI backlog and 14% YoY growth, can’t justify a guidance raise, the AI revenue-to-earnings conversion cycle may be longer than the market priced.

WTI has surged to $92.96 as Iran’s continued ship seizures and the collapse of the diplomatic track remove any ceasefire discount. The key context: Brent breaching $101 is psychologically significant — it represents the first time the international benchmark has traded above $100 since the conflict escalated. The supply shock is structural, not temporary. With 13 million barrels per day disrupted and ING noting that rerouting via pipeline cannot fully compensate, each day that passes without Hormuz reopening tightens the physical market further.

Rapidan Energy’s McNally assessed that Iran’s leadership believes it has the strategic upper hand and can sustain the chokehold for months. Trump called oil prices “peanuts” on CNBC and expressed surprise they aren’t at $200. The rhetorical position suggests no imminent US pressure to de-escalate on economic grounds. For energy traders: the path of least resistance is higher, with $95 Brent the next threshold.

Gold continues its grind higher, supported by three converging forces: (1) geopolitical safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict; (2) central bank accumulation continuing across emerging markets with Malaysia and South Korea recently resuming reserve builds; and (3) a Fed that is firmly on hold (99.5% probability of no cut at the April 29 FOMC per CME), removing the opportunity cost headwind while also keeping real yields from rising sharply.

The LiteFinance forecast model suggests gold may continue to recover today ahead of Thursday’s US flash PMI data (13:45 GMT) and initial jobless claims (12:30 GMT). The $4,800 resistance zone is the near-term pivot. A clean daily close above $4,800 opens the $4,850 target that was set prior to Wednesday’s ceasefire extension relief rally.