Wall Street trades a two-sided session as a chip-stock selloff that started in Asia rolls through US trade even as the Dow hits a fresh intraday record, the loonie sits pinned near one-year lows on Trump’s USMCA threat, the Swiss franc firms as the SNB holds at zero, gold consolidates ahead of today’s ADP report, a Strait of Hormuz tanker strike lifts crude to a one-week high, the Nasdaq 100 pauses after Monday’s record as SpaceX joins the index, 20-year yields edge higher, and Bitcoin and XRP both stall below key resistance — all with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes looming as the week’s decisive catalyst.

NATO’s 36th summit continues in Ankara on Tuesday, with Secretary General Mark Rutte’s Defence Industry Forum running through the day and into the US afternoon as leaders from all 32 member states, including President Trump, work through commitments on allied defence spending, industrial production and continued support for Ukraine. Rutte has already confirmed that the alliance will buy up to ten reconnaissance aircraft from Sweden’s Saab, part of tens of billions of dollars in new contracts expected before the summit closes. That backdrop is running alongside a much larger story for US markets: a chip-stock rotation that began in Asia’s Tuesday session, where South Korea’s Kospi tripped a circuit breaker and closed down nearly 5% following a steep slide in memory-chip names, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 2%. The selloff has rolled straight into Wall Street, where Micron Technology is down roughly 5%, with KLA, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and AMD also lower and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) off more than 3%. Yet the broader market is absorbing the rotation reasonably well: the Dow Jones Industrial Average has pushed to a fresh all-time intraday high, adding modestly on the day as investors rotate into healthcare, financials and select Big Tech names, with Eli Lilly, JPMorgan Chase and Microsoft all firmer, while Walmart is higher after announcing price cuts on staple goods. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are each modestly softer on the session, and SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 index on Tuesday, a listing expected to trigger meaningful passive buying from funds that track the benchmark.

In FX, USD/CAD is holding near one-year highs around 1.4210, with the Canadian dollar remaining the weakest G10 currency of recent weeks as soft domestic growth data, a negative correlation between the loonie and oil, and President Trump’s threat to terminate the USMCA trade agreement all weigh on the currency ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 rate decision. USD/CHF, by contrast, has firmed modestly to around 0.8062 as the Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at zero for a fourth consecutive meeting, with Swiss inflation slowing to 0.5% in June, its first decline in eight months, even as the SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in currency markets if the franc strengthens excessively. The broader US Dollar Index remains near a three-week low around 101, still digesting last week’s much weaker-than-expected June payrolls report, which showed job growth of just 57,000 against forecasts near 110,000 and pulled the market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike down to roughly 54–56% from about two-thirds beforehand. Today’s ADP employment report is the next data point markets will use to test that repricing, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the Fed’s June meeting looming as the week’s more decisive catalyst.

In commodities, Crude Oil (WTI) has jumped to a one-week high near $69.35 a barrel, and Brent has cleared $72, after a fully laden LNG carrier owned by a Qatari state shipping company was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns among shipowners about the durability of the US-Iran agreement meant to keep the strategic waterway clear of attacks. Even so, oil remains close to its lowest levels since late February, as OPEC+’s weekend decision to raise production quotas for next month and Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut the price of its Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $11 a barrel both continue to weigh on the broader market. Gold is consolidating near $4,145 an ounce, capped below $4,205 resistance and holding above $4,130 support, as position-squaring ahead of today’s ADP data and tomorrow’s FOMC minutes keeps the metal in a tight range, even as the World Gold Council’s report of continued central-bank buying underpins the broader structure. In equities, the Nasdaq 100 is pausing near 29,640 after Monday’s 1.3% run to fresh records, as the chip-stock rotation offsets the index’s addition of SpaceX. In fixed income, the US 20-year Treasury yield is edging up toward 4.85%, tracking a broader global bond selloff — Germany’s 20-year Bund yield is also climbing on a bigger 2027 budget — as markets price in a still-hawkish Fed dot plot and heavy Treasury issuance ahead of Wednesday’s minutes.

In crypto, Bitcoin is trading near $63,230, up more than 2% on the day and roughly 6–8% over the past week, but easing back from an overnight two-week high near $64,400 as falling open interest and soft spot demand raise questions about the rally’s staying power, and after Strategy disclosed a further $213 million bitcoin sale. XRP is softer near $1.125, stalling just below the $1.13–$1.14 resistance band that has capped recent breakout attempts, after Standard Chartered cut its long-run price target to $2.80 from $8 on slowing ETF inflows and the CLARITY Act’s Senate floor vote — the one development seen as capable of materially repricing XRP — slipped to late July or early August at the earliest.