Yen Whipsaws After Suspected BOJ Intervention as Friday’s US Jobs Report, China’s Caixin PMIs, and XRP’s September Wait Take Center Stage | Asian Session Weekly – Technical Analysis | 3–7 August

Market Analysis

August 1, 2026

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Week Ahead, 3–7 August: Yen Whipsaws After Suspected BOJ Intervention as Friday’s US Jobs Report, China’s Caixin PMIs, and XRP’s September Wait Take Center Stage | CSFX Asian Session Weekly trade ideas and economic calendar for week of 3–7 August 2026.”>

Asian Market Weekly Technical Analysis

Saturday 1 August 2026 · Week of 3–7 August 2026 · Full Asian Trading Week

Week Ahead, 3–7 August: Yen Whipsaws After Suspected BOJ Intervention as Friday’s US Jobs Report, China’s Caixin PMIs, and XRP’s September Wait Take Center Stage

USD/JPY 157.46 · AUD/USD 0.7030 · Copper $6.56/lb · Hang Seng 25,884.32 · Litecoin $46.72 · XRP $1.060
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mon 3 Aug · China Caixin Services PMI Wed 5 Aug · US Nonfarm Payrolls Fri 7 Aug · Full Asian session trade ideas and economic calendar for week of 3–7 August 2026

USD/JPY· AUD/USD· Copper· Hang Seng· Litecoin· XRP

Last Week at a Glance · 27–31 July 2026

USD/JPY

157.46

▼ -3.88% wk

The pair plunged from above 163 to briefly below 158 on Thursday amid suspected Japanese official intervention, then partially recovered after Friday’s BOJ decision to hold its policy rate at 1.00% by an 8-1 vote.

AUD/USD

0.7030

▲ +0.76% wk

The Aussie rode a broadly softer US dollar to its best weekly close in over a month, helped by the yen intervention spillover and a below-forecast US Q2 GDP print.

Copper (COMEX)

$6.56/lb

▲ +4.11% wk

Copper climbed toward a fresh multi-week high as the Fed’s hold eased demand-side concerns and China’s Politburo signaled continuity rather than fresh stimulus withdrawal.

Hang Seng Index

25,884.32

▲ +4.01% wk

Hong Kong equities extended a broad regional AI-driven rebound, with the Hang Seng Tech Index outperforming as easing valuation worries lifted sentiment alongside a 4%+ surge in Japan’s Nikkei 225.

Litecoin (LTC)

$46.72

▲ +0.93% wk

LTC extended its bounce off Extreme Fear lows for a second straight week, though the token remains below its 200-day average and prior support tests near $43 are still fresh in traders’ minds.

XRP

$1.060

▼ -2.75% wk

XRP drifted lower within its familiar range as the broader crypto market took a back seat to the yen intervention headlines and the Fed’s divided policy decision.

The week of 27–31 July 2026 in the Asian session delivered one of the sharpest single-session FX moves of the year. USD/JPY plunged as much as 3% intraday on Thursday, briefly trading below 158 from levels above 163, in a move traders and multiple outlets attributed to suspected intervention by Japanese authorities after the yen touched its weakest level in roughly four decades earlier in the week. Neither the Ministry of Finance nor the Bank of Japan confirmed the operation, though Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama had spent weeks warning that decisive action remained possible. The move came directly on the heels of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, where Chair Kevin Warsh’s committee held rates at 3.50%–3.75% despite three officials dissenting in favor of a hike, and a second-quarter US GDP print that grew just 1.5%, missing the 2.1% forecast. Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting then delivered a widely expected hold at 1.00% by an 8-1 vote, with lone dissenter Hajime Takata pushing for an immediate move to 1.25%; the yen gave back part of Thursday’s spike as Governor Ueda signaled the board would keep debating further tightening at upcoming meetings. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng and Nikkei both rallied hard as a global AI-related equity selloff earlier in July continued to unwind, while copper pushed toward a fresh multi-week high on an easing demand outlook. Crypto majors were comparatively quiet, with Litecoin extending its bounce and XRP drifting modestly lower. The set-up into the new week centers on whether Japanese authorities return to the currency market if yen weakness resumes, whether China’s twin Caixin PMIs confirm the region’s AI-driven risk rally has real economic footing, and whether Friday’s US jobs report reshapes the growth-versus-inflation debate that already split the Fed.

📋 This Week at a Glance · 3–7 August 2026

Intervention Aftermath, China’s Caixin PMIs, and Friday’s US Jobs Report Are the Events to Watch, 3–7 August

The week of 3–7 August 2026 opens the Asian session with USD/JPY at 157.46, still digesting Thursday’s suspected intervention and Friday’s Bank of Japan hold. With no BOJ or Federal Reserve meeting scheduled this week, the pair’s near-term path depends on positioning: JPY net shorts remain close to record highs, and several desks flag scope for a further multi-percent unwind if officials signal they are prepared to act again, even as the underlying rate differential still favors a weaker yen over the medium term. Neither the Bank of Japan’s next scheduled decision nor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (due 10–11 August) falls within this window, leaving China’s twin RatingDog/Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index releases — manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday — as the clearest scheduled macro catalysts for AUD/USD, the Hang Seng, and copper. Both arrive just after Beijing’s Politburo signaled it would lean on existing policy tools rather than fresh broad-based stimulus, making the PMI prints a genuine test of whether recent activity strength has real staying power. In the US, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report carries outsized weight given last week’s soft Q2 GDP print and the three-way dissent at the Fed’s July meeting; a weak jobs number would sharpen the growth-scare narrative that already unsettled markets mid-month, while a resilient print would support the case for the Fed’s cautious, wait-and-see posture under new Chair Kevin Warsh. China’s July trade balance, also due Friday, rounds out a data-heavy end to the week. In crypto, XRP continues to mark time within its familiar range with the CLARITY Act’s Senate vote still not expected before September, while Litecoin’s ability to build on its recent bounce is the more actionable near-term technical story.

🇯🇵 BOJ/MOF Intervention Watch Continues 🇨🇳 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mon 🇨🇳 China Caixin Services PMI Wed 🇺🇸 US Nonfarm Payrolls Fri ⚖️ XRP CLARITY Act Still Eyeing September

Section 1 · About the Asian Market This Week

Four threads carry over into the Asian session this week, each tied to its own asset: continued intervention-watch positioning for USD/JPY, sitting at 157.46 after Thursday’s whipsaw; China’s twin Caixin PMIs for AUD/USD (0.7030) and the Hang Seng (25,884.32); a rejuvenated structural bid for copper ($6.56/lb); and a still-quiet regulatory backdrop for XRP ($1.060) and Litecoin ($46.72).

1. USD/JPY — trading the intervention aftermath (all week). USD/JPY at 157.46 is still settling after one of the sharpest single-day moves of the year, a suspected official intervention that briefly drove the pair below 158 from above 163. With no BOJ or Fed meeting scheduled this week, CSFX sees positioning as the dominant driver: JPY net shorts remain near record extremes, and any fresh signal from Tokyo — whether from Finance Minister Katayama, Currency Chief Atsushi Mimura, or unconfirmed reports of further operations — could trigger another outsized move given how one-sided the market remains.

2. AUD/USD — China’s Caixin PMIs and Friday’s US jobs report. AUD/USD at 0.7030 enters the week at its best level in over a month, lifted less by domestic factors than by broad US dollar softness. With the Reserve Bank of Australia not due to meet until 10–11 August, the Aussie’s clearest scheduled catalysts this week are Monday’s China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday’s China Caixin Services PMI, and Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which carries extra weight after last week’s soft Q2 GDP print and the three-way hawkish dissent at the Fed.

3. Hang Seng and copper — do China’s PMIs confirm the rally? The Hang Seng closed last week at 25,884.32, up over 4%, as a broad AI-driven rebound across Asian equities — including a 4%+ surge in Japan’s Nikkei — helped erase much of the earlier-July valuation-driven selloff. Copper at $6.56/lb pushed to a fresh multi-week high on the Fed’s hold and Beijing’s decision to lean on existing tools rather than announce fresh stimulus. This week’s Caixin PMIs are the next genuine test of whether that resilience has real economic footing rather than being purely sentiment-driven.

4. XRP and Litecoin — still waiting on September, still testing technicals. With the CLARITY Act’s Senate vote still not expected before September, XRP at $1.060 continues to trade within its familiar $1.00–$1.15 range, drifting modestly lower last week as intervention and Fed headlines dominated attention elsewhere. Litecoin, at $46.72 after a second straight weekly gain, faces the more concrete technical question this week: whether it can build a fresh higher-low above the $44 area or risks retesting the support zone that drew repeated warnings just a few weeks ago.

USD/JPY

157.46

▼ -3.88% wk · Extending intervention-driven slide

No BOJ/Fed meeting this week; positioning is the swing factor

AUD/USD

0.7030

▲ +0.76% wk · Best close in over a month

China Caixin PMIs Mon/Wed · US jobs report Friday

Copper (COMEX)

$6.56/lb

▲ +4.11% wk · Fresh multi-week high

China Caixin PMIs the next confirmation point

Hang Seng Index

25,884.32

▲ +4.01% wk · AI-driven regional rebound

China Caixin Services PMI Wednesday the key test

Litecoin (LTC)

$46.72

▲ +0.93% wk · Second straight weekly gain

$44.00 the level to defend this week

XRP

$1.060

▼ -2.75% wk · Drifting within its familiar range

$1.00–$1.15 the range to watch this week

Section 2 · What Moves Markets This Week

Three Forces That Will Drive the Asian Session — 3 to 7 August 2026

The scheduled Asian-session catalysts that will set the direction across FX, equities, and digital assets for the week of 3–7 August 2026

🇯🇵

Force 1 · The Yen’s Intervention Aftermath — Markets Test Whether Officials Return

USD/JPY at 157.46 is still settling after Thursday’s suspected official intervention briefly drove the pair below 158 from above 163, followed by Friday’s widely expected BOJ hold at 1.00%. With no central-bank meeting scheduled this week, CSFX sees renewed yen weakness back toward 160 as the trigger most likely to invite a second round of official action, given how extreme short-yen positioning remains.

🇨🇳

Force 2 · China’s Twin Caixin PMIs Test Whether the AI-Driven Rally Has Legs

Monday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Wednesday’s Caixin Services PMI are the week’s clearest scheduled catalysts for AUD/USD, the Hang Seng, and copper, arriving just after Beijing’s Politburo signaled it would rely on existing policy tools rather than fresh stimulus. A pair of readings comfortably above 50 would support the case that last week’s AI-driven equity rebound reflects more than sentiment alone.

🇺🇸

Force 3 · Friday’s US Jobs Report Reshapes the Growth-Versus-Inflation Debate

With last week’s Q2 GDP print missing forecasts and three FOMC officials dissenting in favor of a hike, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report carries more weight than usual for a month without a Fed meeting. A soft print would sharpen growth-scare concerns; a resilient one would support Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious, low-guidance approach to policy communication.

With the CLARITY Act’s Senate vote still not expected before September, CSFX continues to see no near-term regulatory catalyst that would break XRP decisively out of its current range. Dips toward the lower end of the $1.00–$1.15 band remain the more attractive entry compared with chasing strength toward resistance.

Chart by TradingView

Section 4 · Key Catalysts

What Could Move Asian Markets Sharply This Week

The scheduled and unscheduled events that CSFX is watching most closely for the Asian session, 3–7 August 2026

FX INTERVENTION

BOJ / MOF Intervention Watch — Any Time This Week

Thursday’s suspected operation was not officially confirmed, and Japan’s monthly intervention data (covering late June through late July) is not due until 31 August. With JPY positioning still extreme, CSFX treats any renewed yen weakness toward 160 as the level most likely to invite a second round of official action.

MACRO

China Caixin/RatingDog Manufacturing PMI — Monday, 3 August

The first scheduled test of whether China’s activity strength carries genuine momentum into August, arriving just after the Politburo signaled reliance on existing tools rather than fresh stimulus. Directly relevant for AUD/USD and copper.

MACRO

China Caixin/RatingDog Services PMI — Wednesday, 5 August

The services-sector complement to Monday’s manufacturing print, and the more direct read-through for the Hang Seng given the index’s exposure to consumption and platform-economy names.

EMPLOYMENT

US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate — Friday, 7 August

This month’s jobs report carries extra weight after last week’s soft Q2 GDP print (1.5% vs. 2.1% forecast) and the three-way hawkish dissent at the Fed’s July meeting. A weak print would sharpen growth-scare concerns; a resilient one would support Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious approach.

MACRO

China Trade Balance (July) — Friday, 7 August

China’s trade surplus has widened for several straight months on strong AI-hardware-linked exports. A continuation of that trend would reinforce the bullish copper and Hang Seng narrative heading into the weekend.

CRYPTO

XRP’s September Wait & Litecoin’s $44 Retest — Throughout the Week

With the CLARITY Act’s timeline still pointing to September at the earliest, XRP remains a range trade rather than an event trade. Litecoin’s ability to hold a higher low above $44 is the clearer near-term technical story in crypto this week.

Section 5 · Economic Calendar

Asian Session — Economic Calendar, 3–7 August 2026

All times approximate, Hong Kong Time (HKT, UTC+8). Key releases for USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Copper, Hang Seng, Litecoin, and XRP.

Day	Time (HKT)	Release	Impact	Forecast	CSFX View
Monday, 3 August
Mon	09:45 HKT	China Caixin/RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July)	HIGH	~50.3	The week’s first scheduled confirmation point for whether China’s recent activity strength is durable, directly relevant for AUD/USD and copper heading into the new week.
Mon	All Day	USD/JPY Positioning Watch After Thursday’s Intervention	MED	N/A	With no scheduled central-bank event, Monday’s session is likely to set the tone for how much of Thursday’s move traders are willing to fade or extend.
Tuesday, 4 August
Tue	All Day	Japan Household Spending & BOJ Summary of Opinions (July Meeting)	LOW	N/A	Secondary Japanese data, but any fresh board-member commentary on the pace of further tightening would land on an unusually sensitive yen market this week.
Wednesday, 5 August
Wed	09:45 HKT	China Caixin/RatingDog Services PMI (July)	HIGH	~52.5	The services-sector complement to Monday’s manufacturing print and the more direct catalyst for Hang Seng sentiment given the index’s consumption exposure.
Wed	~20:15 HKT	US ADP Employment Change (July)	MED	N/A	Lands overnight Asia time as an early read ahead of Friday’s official jobs report; a large miss either way would shift expectations into Friday.
Thursday, 6 August
Thu	~20:30 HKT	US Initial Jobless Claims	LOW	N/A	Weekly claims data lands late Thursday Asia time; a notable jump would add to growth-scare chatter ahead of Friday’s payrolls release.
Thu	All Day	Litecoin $44 Support Watch	LOW	N/A	With LTC’s bounce now two weeks old, Thursday’s price action around $44 is an early tell for whether a genuine higher low is forming.
Friday, 7 August
Fri	~20:30 HKT	US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (July)	HIGH	N/A	The week’s single most important scheduled release. Given last week’s soft GDP print and the Fed’s three-way dissent, a weak number carries genuine potential to reshape rate expectations into September.
Fri	Morning HKT	China Trade Balance (July)	MED	Surplus ~$115B	China’s export strength has been a key pillar of the recent AI-hardware-driven trade surplus; a continuation would reinforce the bullish copper and Hang Seng narrative into the weekend.
Fri	All Day	XRP Weekly Close vs. $1.00–$1.15 Range	MED	N/A	With the CLARITY Act catalyst still pointing to September, this week’s close is again more about technical positioning within the range than any binary regulatory outcome.

Section 6 · FAQ

Asian Session — Trader Questions Answered

Key questions from CSFX clients ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, China’s Caixin PMIs, and the ongoing yen intervention watch

Thursday’s yen move was described as “suspected” intervention. Why the uncertainty, and does it matter for this week’s trading?

Japan’s Ministry of Finance has not confirmed the operation, and the monthly intervention data covering that window isn’t due until 31 August, so a definitive answer is still weeks away. What matters more for this week is that the market behaved as if intervention occurred: an unexplained multi-percent move with no data release or headline to account for it is exactly the pattern seen in prior confirmed episodes. CSFX treats the uncertainty itself as the trading opportunity — extreme short-yen positioning means officials likely achieved much of their goal (flushing out speculative shorts) regardless of whether the operation is ever formally acknowledged.

There’s no BOJ or Fed meeting this week. Why does last week’s BOJ decision still matter?

Because the BOJ’s 8-1 vote to hold, with one member pushing for an immediate hike to 1.25%, signals that further tightening remains actively on the table for upcoming meetings rather than a distant possibility. That keeps the market alert to any board-member commentary between now and the next scheduled decision, and it means yen positioning this week is being shaped as much by expectations of what comes next as by the hold itself.

Why does Friday’s US jobs report matter more than a typical month without a Fed decision?

Because the Fed’s own committee is already visibly split: three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike at the same meeting where second-quarter GDP came in well below forecast. That combination of a divided committee and weakening growth data means a soft jobs report would sharpen concerns that the Fed misjudged the trade-off, while a resilient print would support the case for the current wait-and-see stance. Either outcome carries more weight than it would in a month with less internal disagreement at the Fed.

China’s Politburo just signaled no new stimulus. Does that make this week’s Caixin PMIs less important?

If anything, it raises the stakes. With policymakers explicitly choosing to rely on existing tools rather than announce new measures, the PMI data becomes the cleanest available signal of whether that restraint is justified by genuine underlying momentum or whether it risks looking premature. A pair of firm readings would validate the recent equity rally; a soft pair would revive questions CSFX expects to resurface quickly given how much of last week’s gains were sentiment-driven.

What is CSFX’s single highest-conviction trade for the week of 3–7 August?

CSFX’s highest-conviction setup is fading USD/JPY rallies toward 160.00, given how extreme short-yen positioning remains after Thursday’s episode and the elevated odds of a second round of official action if that positioning reasserts itself. The second-highest-conviction idea is buying copper on a confirmed dip toward $6.35, contingent on this week’s China Caixin PMIs confirming rather than undermining the demand-side narrative.

CSFX View · Week of 3 August 2026

CSFX View: Intervention Aftermath, China’s Caixin PMIs, and Friday’s Jobs Report Define the Asian Session This Week

The week of 3–7 August 2026 opens the Asian session still digesting one of the sharpest single-session FX moves of the year. USD/JPY at 157.46 is settling after Thursday’s suspected intervention briefly drove the pair below 158 from above 163, followed by Friday’s widely expected BOJ hold at 1.00%. AUD/USD at 0.7030 and the Hang Seng at 25,884.32 both look to Monday’s and Wednesday’s China Caixin PMI releases as the confirmation points that determine whether last week’s AI-driven rebound has genuine economic footing. Copper at $6.56/lb is testing whether its structural bid can extend to a fresh multi-week high. In crypto, Litecoin at $46.72 looks to build a higher low above $44 to keep its two-week bounce credible, while XRP at $1.060 continues to mark time within its range now that its CLARITY Act catalyst still points to September.

USD/JPY’s extreme positioning makes further yen weakness toward 160.00 the genuine wildcard this week, and CSFX’s framework fades pushes back toward that level given how likely a second round of official action would be if positioning reasserts itself. AUD/USD should trade off Monday’s and Wednesday’s China Caixin PMIs and the broader dollar tone set by Friday’s US jobs report. In commodities, copper’s structural bid remains intact and supports a continued bullish bias on dips. The Hang Seng’s rally still needs the PMI confirmation it hasn’t yet received, making a dip toward 25,400 a more attractive entry than chasing strength. In crypto, XRP is best approached as a range trade rather than an event trade again this week, while Litecoin’s ability to hold above $44 is the clearest technical story in this week’s report.

CSFX’s highest-conviction setups for the week are: fading USD/JPY rallies toward 160.00 given extreme short-yen positioning, and buying copper on a confirmed dip toward $6.35 contingent on this week’s China Caixin PMIs. AUD/USD is a buy on dips to 0.6960 contingent on the PMI data and Friday’s jobs report; the Hang Seng is a buy on a confirmed dip toward 25,400; XRP is a buy on dips to $1.02 within its current range; and Litecoin is a patient $44.00 accumulation play pending confirmation of a genuine higher low. CSFX will issue intra-week alerts if Japanese authorities appear to intervene again, if Friday’s US jobs report surprises materially in either direction, if China’s PMI data disappoints sharply, or if Litecoin closes a session decisively below $44. Follow all updates at capitalstreetfx.com.

New clients can also take advantage of a limited-time deposit bonus when they open an account this week, on top of the usual account benefits — tight spreads, high leverage, and access to 2000+ instruments across FX, commodities, indices, and crypto. Full terms and other promotions are available on the CSFX website.

Trade Asian Markets at CSFX →

Three Forces That Will Drive the Asian Session — 3 to 7 August 2026

Asian Session Weekly Trade Ideas

Thesis — Fade Rallies Toward 160.00; Extreme Positioning Makes a Second Intervention Plausible

Thesis — Buy Dips to 0.6960; China’s PMIs and Friday’s Jobs Report Are the Confirmation Points

Thesis — Structural Bid Reasserting Itself; Dips Toward $6.35 Remain a Buying Opportunity

Thesis — Buy the Dip Into Confirmation; China’s PMIs Are the Test the Rally Still Needs

Thesis — Patient Accumulation Only; a Higher Low Above $44 Would Strengthen the Bounce

Thesis — Range-Trade the $1.00–$1.15 Band; No Binary Catalyst This Week Either

What Could Move Asian Markets Sharply This Week

Asian Session — Economic Calendar, 3–7 August 2026

Asian Session — Trader Questions Answered

CSFX View: Intervention Aftermath, China’s Caixin PMIs, and Friday’s Jobs Report Define the Asian Session This Week

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