01 — CHART ANALYSIS
NG1! Daily Chart with Annotations
0 = $7.499 Key Fib Top
0 = $2.780 Fib Base / Support
Current: $2.870
EIA Storage (Apr 3)
⬇ SELL ZONE: $3.00–3.04
NG1! · NYMEX · 1D · TradingView
Fib Levels · RSI(14) · Moving Averages · CSFX-RESEARCH
Apr 01, 2026 12:46 UTC+5:30
02 — TECHNICAL SUMMARY
24-Hour Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|
| RSI (14) | 41.79 | Oversold Zone |
| MACD (12,26,9) | −0.12 | Bearish Cross |
| Stoch RSI | 44.95 | Neutral |
| MA 20 (SMA) | $3.037 | Price Below |
| MA 50 (SMA) | $3.399 | Price Below |
| MA 200 (SMA) | $3.787 | Price Below |
| Bollinger Band | Lower Band | Below Mid |
| ATR (14) | 0.148 | Moderate Vol. |
| ADX (14) | 28.4 | Downtrend Active |
| Volume | Below Avg. | Thin Market |
| Level Type | Price | Significance | Action Zone |
|---|
| Resistance R3 | $3.399 | 50-Day SMA | Heavy Sell |
| Resistance R2 | $3.037 | 20-Day SMA / 78.6% Fib | Sell Zone |
| Resistance R1 | $2.950 | Intraday High / Previous Close | Sell on Bounce |
| ⚡ Current Price | $2.870 | Near Fib 100% base zone | In Trade |
| Support S1 | $2.780 | Fib 100% / Multi-Month Low | Buy/Cover |
| Support S2 | $2.600 | 2024 Support Zone | Strong Support |
| Support S3 | $2.300 | Historical Low Band | Extreme Support |
03 — FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS
Key News Impacting Natural Gas Today
️
Warm US Weather Forecast Weighing Heavily on Prices
The Commodity Weather Group reports that above-average temperatures are expected across the western two-thirds of the US through April 1–13, sharply reducing natural gas heating demand. This is the single biggest near-term bearish catalyst for NG1! today, as reduced residential and commercial heating demand increases storage builds heading into summer.
Bearish — High Impact
EIA Storage Report Due April 3 — Critical 24H Event
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage report releases Thursday April 3. Expectations lean toward a storage build given warm weather reducing demand. Any surprise larger-than-expected build would trigger another leg lower for NG1!, while a smaller-than-expected or withdrawal would provide near-term support. Watch for report at 10:30 ET.
Bearish Lean — Critical Event
️
Qatar Ras Laffan LNG Plant Damage — Global Supply Shock
Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City, accounting for approximately 20% of global LNG supply. Repair timeline estimated at 3–5 years. While US domestic prices face limited direct impact (LNG export utilization was already near capacity), the disruption supports global LNG prices and adds a geopolitical risk premium to US nat-gas longer term. The Golden Pass LNG Train 1 online this month could partially offset globally.
Bullish Longer Term — Moderate Near-Term
⚙️
Record US Production — 118+ Bcf/d Limiting Upside
US natural gas production has reached record highs at approximately 118 Bcf/d, up 2.6% year-over-year. The EIA’s March Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts production to average 118 Bcf/d in 2026 and 121 Bcf/d in 2027. Abundant supply from the Haynesville, Permian, and Appalachian basins keeps a firm lid on any significant price recovery in the near term.
Bearish — Structural Supply Pressure
EIA 2026 Henry Hub Forecast: ~$3.80/MMBtu Average
The EIA’s March 2026 STEO revised its Henry Hub forecast down 13% to approximately $3.80/MMBtu for full-year 2026, citing milder-than-expected February temperatures that left storage near the 5-year average (1,840 Bcf end of withdrawal season). With current prices at $2.87, the market is trading significantly below the annual average forecast, suggesting either a recovery ahead or a continued bearish shoulder season drag.
Mixed — Price Below EIA Forecast
Australia Cyclone Disrupts LNG Export Terminals
A cyclone has disrupted operations at several LNG export terminals in Western Australia, adding further tightness to global LNG supply. Combined with the Qatar Ras Laffan damage, global LNG prices have surged, with European TTF prices hitting one-year highs. This global tightness could eventually pull US exports higher, providing structural support for NYMEX nat-gas in coming weeks.
Bullish Medium-Term
04 — EVENT CALENDAR
Key Events — Next 24 Hours (Apr 1–2, 2026)
THU 10:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report (Apr 3)
Weekly storage change — consensus expects build due to warm weather. A surprise large build would push NG1! toward $2.78 support. A smaller build or draw could trigger bounce toward $2.95–$3.00 resistance. Most important 24H event for NG.
APR 1 ALL DAY
US Tariff Announcement (“Liberation Day Anniversary”)
One year since Trump’s April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Markets remain sensitive to any new trade policy signals. Energy commodity risk premium could spike on any tariff escalation news affecting global trade flows.
WED 14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes Release
Fed minutes could influence energy demand outlook through USD impact. A hawkish tilt strengthens USD, pressuring commodity prices including nat-gas.
ONGOING
Middle East Geopolitical Developments
Any escalation or de-escalation near the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts LNG trade flows. Iran ceasefire talks could reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Watch for headlines on Qatar Ras Laffan repair updates.
APR 7
⚪ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Next Release)
Monthly EIA STEO update — expect potential revisions to Henry Hub price forecasts and production outlook based on March actuals. Not in the immediate 24H window but market will pre-position.
05 — TRADE SETUP
Recommended Trade Setup — April 1, 2026
⚡ Entry Zone
$2.940
–$2.960
Sell on bounce to 20-Day SMA area / R1 resistance. Wait for bearish candle confirmation (engulfing or pin bar) on 1H chart near resistance zone before entry.
Stop Loss
$3.060
Above 20-Day SMA ($3.037) and intraday swing high. A break and close above $3.06 invalidates the bearish thesis. Risk ~$0.10–$0.12/MMBtu per contract.
Take Profit
$2.780
TP2: $2.650
TP1 at Fib 100% base support / multi-month low. TP2 extended target at $2.650 on continuation. Consider partial exits at TP1, move SL to breakeven.
RISK:REWARD RATIO
1 : 1.8 → 1 : 2.6 (extended)
POSITION SIZE
1–2% account risk per trade
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage risk.
Trigger: If EIA storage report (Apr 3) shows a smaller-than-expected build OR a surprise draw, a counter-trend long setup becomes viable.
Long Entry: $2.790–$2.810 (at/near Fib 100% base) | Stop: $2.720 | Target: $2.950–$3.000
Invalidation: Break below $2.780 support — would signal accelerated selling toward $2.600.
06 — FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions — Natural Gas Futures
What is the current natural gas price outlook for April 2026?
+
Natural gas futures (NG1!) are trading at approximately $2.870/MMBtu as of April 1, 2026, reflecting a bearish technical posture. The daily and weekly signals are “Strong Sell” with all major moving averages (20, 50, 200-day SMAs) positioned above the current price. The EIA projects an average Henry Hub price of ~$3.80/MMBtu for full-year 2026, suggesting the market is pricing in extended shoulder-season weakness before a potential summer recovery.
How does the Qatar LNG disruption impact US natural gas prices?
+
The damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — responsible for about 20% of global LNG supply — primarily impacts European and Asian LNG prices. US domestic prices see limited direct impact because US LNG export facilities were already operating near maximum capacity, leaving little room to divert additional supply. However, the global tightness supports longer-term US export demand and adds a risk premium. The new Golden Pass LNG Train 1 coming online in April could partially benefit.
What is the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report and why does it matter?
+
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released every Thursday at 10:30 AM ET, shows the change in underground natural gas storage levels in the US. Natural gas traders watch this report closely as a key supply/demand indicator. A larger-than-expected storage build is bearish (more supply than anticipated), while a smaller build or unexpected draw is bullish. With the April 3 report imminent, this is the single biggest near-term price catalyst for NG1! in the next 24 hours.
Why is the natural gas price near a multi-month low?
+
Natural gas prices have been pressured by three main factors: (1) Record US production at ~118 Bcf/d creating ample supply; (2) Warmer-than-normal weather forecasts for late March through mid-April reducing heating demand and encouraging storage builds; (3) Technical selling as the price broke below all major moving averages and is approaching the Fibonacci 100% base at $2.780. The post-Winter Storm Fern high of $7.499 now represents a distant Fibonacci retracement anchor.
What are the key support and resistance levels for natural gas today?
+
Key resistance levels: $2.950 (intraday R1), $3.037 (20-Day SMA / critical pivot), $3.399 (50-Day SMA). Key support levels: $2.780 (Fib 100% base, critical support — a break here could accelerate selling), $2.650 (intermediate support zone), and $2.300 (deep historical support). Current price at $2.870 sits in a precarious zone between the Fib 100% base support ($2.780) and the nearest resistance at $2.950.
Is it a good time to buy natural gas at current levels?
+
While the price is approaching a historically significant support zone (Fib 100% at $2.780), the overall technical trend remains bearish with all major moving averages above current price. The fundamental picture for the next 24 hours is also bearish (warm weather, potential storage build). A contrarian long setup only becomes attractive if: (a) price tests $2.780–$2.800 support with a reversal candle pattern, OR (b) the EIA storage report provides a bullish surprise. Risk management is critical — always use a stop loss. This is not financial advice.
CONCLUSION
Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) are under significant pressure heading into April 1, 2026.
The confluence of above-average warm weather across the US, record domestic production
at 118+ Bcf/d, and a technically broken price structure (below all key moving averages)
creates a high-probability bearish setup in the near term.
- Daily and weekly technical signals: Strong Sell — all SMAs overhead
- Fibonacci analysis: Price near 100% base ($2.780) — critical support to watch
- Primary bearish catalyst: Warm weather outlook reducing heating demand significantly
- Key 24H event: EIA Storage Report April 3 — expect bearish build, watch for surprise
- Global LNG disruption (Qatar, Australia) provides medium-term upside risk premium
- Preferred trade: Sell bounces toward $2.94–$2.96 targeting $2.78 support
- Risk invalidation: Sustained break and close above $3.06 (20-Day SMA)
- EIA full-year 2026 forecast: ~$3.80/MMBtu — significant recovery potential into H2 2026
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This Natural Gas market outlook report is produced by CSFX Research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Natural Gas futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis levels and trade setups are probabilistic in nature and not guarantees of outcome. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. CSFX Research assumes no liability for trading losses incurred based on this analysis.
