AUD/USD Slides Toward 0.6500 After Dovish RBA Minutes
AUD/USD declines toward 0.6500 following dovish signals in RBA meeting minutes.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW:
The AUD/USD pair declined to around 0.6515 on Tuesday, pressured by the Australian Dollar’s underperformance following the release of dovish RBA minutes. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.85% earlier this month, contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis points cut.
The minutes revealed that policymakers chose to hold rates steady to avoid signalling a shift toward a more aggressive easing stance, although three members favoured a rate cut, citing progress toward the 2% inflation target.
Market sentiment now leans toward an interest rate cut at the RBA’s August meeting, as Australia’s labour market shows signs of cooling. June’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since November 2021.
In contrast, in the U.S., expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate reduction has fallen to 58.3%, down from 69.6% a month ago, after the latest CPI report indicated rising prices on imported goods, reducing the case for near-term easing.
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART:
Technical Overview:
AUD/USD is trading within a up channel.
AUD/USD is moving above below 50&100 Moving Averages (SMA).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in Buying Zone, while the Stochastic oscillator suggests Neutral trend.
Immediate Resistance level: 0.6544
Immediate support level: 0.6500
HOW TO TRADE AUD/USD
AUD/USD, following a short-lived upward movement, has lost traction and shifted into a consolidation phase, reflecting indecision in the market. With momentum weakening, the pair has begun to decline and is now testing a nearby resistance level. A failure to break higher may trigger a fresh move lower toward a key support zone.