Markets Focus on US Inflation, ECB Meeting This Week.
Looking Ahead: Markets Eye US Inflation Data and Upcoming ECB Meeting.
The US Dollar (USD) ended the week weaker, pressured by disappointing August Nonfarm Payrolls (+22K jobs), reinforcing expectations of a likely Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17–18 meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gave back prior gains, closing modestly lower amid continued consolidation near the lower end of its recent range. Key US economic data this week includes- Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sept 8), NFIB Business Optimism Index, Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision, and API Crude Oil Inventories (Sept 9), followed by MBA Mortgage Applications (Sept 10), Producer Prices, Wholesale Inventories, and EIA Crude Oil Stockpiles. Inflation Rate releases on Sept 11 and U-Mich Consumer Sentiment on Sept 12 will round out the week.
EUR/USD climbed to five-week highs around 1.1750 on Friday, supported by Greenback weakness. Germany’s Balance of Trade and Industrial Production data, along with the Sentix Index, will release on Sept 8, followed by the final Inflation Rate on Sept 12.
GBP/USD regained upward momentum, closing the week with solid gains after two weekly pullbacks. Key UK releases include the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sept 9) and, on Sept 12, the RICS House Price Balance, GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.
USD/JPY dropped to the 147.00 region on Friday, leaving weekly movement mostly unchanged. Japan’s economic calendar features Current Account (Sept 8), Q2 GDP, Bank Lending, Eco Watchers Survey, Machine Tool Orders (Sept 9), and Reuters Tankan, BSI Large Manufacturing Index, Producer Prices, and Foreign Bond Investment (Sept 11), concluding with Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization on Sept 12.
AUD/USD advanced to multi-week highs near 0.6600. Key Australian releases include Building Permits and Private House Approvals (Sept 8), Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence (Sept 9), and Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sept 11).
Upcoming central bank speeches:
- ECB’s Montagner (Sept 9)
- ECB’s Buch (Sept 10)
- RBA’s Jones (Sept 12)
Monetary policy meetings to watch:
- ECB (Sept 11, 2.00% actual vs. 2.00% expected)
- CBRT (Sept 11, 43.0% actual vs. 41.0% expected)